A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
